Analysis: Bitcoin's decline is triggered by US liquidity tightening and continued selling pressure from American investors

ChainCatcher News, XWIN Research under CryptoQuant released an analysis stating that the recent drop of bitcoin below $100,000 is not simply a market fluctuation, but rather the result of multiple structural pressures centered on the United States occurring simultaneously. On-chain data strongly indicates that U.S. investors are the dominant force behind the current downward trend.

Firstly, a certain exchange premium index has been significantly negative for several consecutive weeks, indicating that selling pressure from U.S. investors is much stronger than buying from Asia or Europe. This is consistent with the recent repeated trend: bitcoin rebounds during Asian trading hours, but sees a clear reversal during U.S. trading hours. Secondly, long-term holders (LTH) of all age groups are selling simultaneously. Analysts including Will Clemente have pointed out that the selling pressure does not come from a specific group, but appears among long-term holders of 6 months, 18 months, 3 years, and even 7 years. This situation is extremely rare and strongly suggests that U.S. investors are conducting year-end tax optimization.

Fidelity has also confirmed that many U.S. LTH are locking in profits to complete annual position settlements. Thirdly, the U.S. government shutdown has led to a severe tightening of liquidity. With federal spending forced to pause, the government has unusually run a fiscal surplus, withdrawing tens of billions of dollars in liquidity from the system. Coupled with the cooling of expectations for a rate cut in December, the overall risk appetite in the U.S. has clearly declined. U.S. stocks have generally fallen, crypto-related stocks have dropped by 10–20%, and bitcoin has also experienced a similar liquidity-driven correction.

In summary, these factors form a clear narrative: the current adjustment is mainly led by the United States. Structural selling by long-term holders, declining liquidity due to fiscal tightening, and persistent weakness during U.S. trading hours have collectively amplified market volatility. As liquidity gradually recovers over the coming weeks, market conditions may stabilize, but short-term pressure will remain heavily influenced by U.S. market dynamics.