Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s Unsteady Surge: Optimistic Banks Make Major Bets Amid Rising Technical and Geopolitical Threats

Bitcoin's share of the overall cryptocurrency market has climbed to almost 59%, reaching heights not observed in recent years, as market participants and experts discuss its technical prospects. Yet, fresh data and professional insights point to a potentially unstable situation, with bearish signals appearing even as leading institutions maintain optimistic price projections. This dynamic has reignited debate over Bitcoin's function in institutional investment strategies and its vulnerability to broader economic trends.

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Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete from TD Cowen have presented a detailed outlook for

, forecasting a base scenario price of $141,277 by the end of the year, with a bullish projection at $160,000 and a bearish scenario dropping to $60,000. Their assessment is largely based on the buying patterns of MicroStrategy (now known as Strategy), the top institutional holder. The report states that is anticipated to purchase about $4 billion in Bitcoin each quarter under the base scenario, with the bullish case expecting over $4.5 billion in acquisitions, and the bearish case assuming a pause in buying due to funding limitations, as highlighted by TD Cowen .

At the same time, crypto market commentator Willy has downplayed worries about Strategy potentially offloading its Bitcoin reserves in a future downturn. He points out that the company's debt, which involves convertible notes, can be settled with either shares or cash, making it less likely that Bitcoin would be sold to meet obligations. Woo emphasizes that as long as stock stays above $183.19, forced Bitcoin sales could be postponed until 2027, according to his analysis .

Rising geopolitical tensions have added further complexity. China has recently accused the United States of conducting a "state hack," claiming the seizure of 127,000 Bitcoin valued at $13 billion. While U.S. authorities have not verified these allegations, the controversy has introduced new uncertainty into the market. The stolen Bitcoin, which accounts for 0.65% of the total supply, could impact liquidity and price swings if it remains inaccessible, as China's statement implies

. Experts caution that such international disputes may intensify short-term fear and doubt, while also reinforcing Bitcoin's reputation as a "digital gold" safe haven.

The wider crypto landscape is also evolving.

(ADA) has reported a 28.7% increase in DeFi total value locked (TVL) to $423.5 million in the third quarter of 2025, along with a 42.5% jump in market cap to $29.5 billion. This expansion demonstrates the growing diversity of crypto adoption, though Bitcoin continues to hold the dominant position, as Cardano's figures indicate .

Nonetheless, technical signals urge caution. Bitcoin's 4% weekly drop, despite a $2.09 trillion market valuation, highlights the fragility of its current rally. Traders are monitoring support near the 356-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $105,000, where the price has consolidated after a modest pullback, as noted in the ET report

. This vulnerable setup stands in contrast to the optimism from institutions like TD Cowen, who continue to predict record highs for Bitcoin over the coming years.

With the end of the year approaching, the balance between institutional interest, geopolitical events, and technical factors will likely dictate whether Bitcoin maintains its lead or undergoes a correction. For now, the market remains finely poised, with both bullish and bearish investors preparing for significant moves ahead.