What’s Next for Bitcoin if US Government Shutdown Ends?

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have bounced on growing speculation that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown may be nearing its end, a development analysts say could restore risk appetite and unlock fresh liquidity.

The top cryptocurrency climbed 4.4% over 24 hours to an intraday high of $106,491, lifting the total crypto market capitalization by 4.7% to $3.68 trillion, per CoinGecko data.

Moves towards ending government shutdown

The rally was fueled by a key Senate vote on Sunday to advance a bill to reopen the government, a procedural step that has buoyed investor sentiment, with experts believing a resolution to the 40-day shutdown would remove a significant macro overhang.

“If the U.S. government ends the shutdown, it would likely restore short-term risk appetite across markets, a positive for Bitcoin and crypto,” Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told Decrypt. “The resolution would ease liquidity concerns and improve investor sentiment, potentially extending Bitcoin’s recent rebound.”

The bullish investor sentiment is clearly reflected in prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan. Users assigned a 91% chance that the shutdown would end by November 15, a statistic that has more than doubled since November 9.

Bitcoin’s chances of hitting $115,00 have also improved to 68% after surging from nearly 55% on Sunday.

“The resolution would restore investor confidence, reduce uncertainty around federal spending and liquidity, and improve overall risk sentiment,” Shivam Thakral, CEO of BuyUcoin, told Decrypt. “An end to the shutdown could also support the dollar’s stability and Treasury flows, easing volatility and encouraging institutional participation in digital assets.”

The crypto market has also been boosted by a Truth Social post from U.S. President Donald Trump, in which he indicated that “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.” The move raised the prospect of a repeat of the stimulus checks that saw liquidity flow into the crypto market in 2021.

“This fuels spending, supports corporate earnings, and increases confidence… all of which lift risk appetite across equities and crypto markets alike,” Lee added.

Other experts echoed Lee’s sentiment, who see a clear path for capital rotation into risk-on assets.

However, while Trump’s Truth Social post pointed to the distribution of stimulus checks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently dialed down expectations. In an appearance on ABC's "This Week" with host George Stephanopoulos, Bessent stated that the tariff “dividend” could come in the form of tax cuts, noting that, “It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda.”

Still, experts said the potential for renewed fiscal stimulus has clearly improved investor mood, as it would inject liquidity directly into the economy.

Looking ahead

Experts are watching for a confirmed resolution to the shutdown to confirm the rally’s sustainability.

“We expect further gains if the U.S. ends the shutdown by mid-November,” Jay Jo, Senior Research Analyst at Tiger Research, told Decrypt, adding that stimulus checks, if distributed, “should lift sentiment by adding liquidity and boosting risk appetite. That liquidity could flow into risk-on assets, including crypto.”

Bitcoin could retest the $120,000 to $150,000 range by year-end, according to Thankral’s forecast. His views remained contingent on favorable macro conditions, including the Fed maintaining a dovish bias and improved liquidity.

He cautioned that “sticky inflation, a stronger dollar, or renewed geopolitical tension could limit upside momentum.”

Year-end price targets remain ambitious, though contingent on these macro developments.

Tiger Research maintains a $200,000 year-end target for Bitcoin, while Bitget’s Lee forecasts a range of $90,000 to $160,000, driven by post-election optimism and the likelihood of additional rate cuts.