- Ethereum-based tokens face rejection at a key $1.6T cap, delaying hopes for a new altseason breakout.
- The $1.6T resistance remains the decisive barrier that could shape the next major altcoin market direction.
The altcoin market has been frustrated again after its second attempt to break through the $1.6 trillion market cap failed.
According to the latest on-chain analysis shared by CryptoOnchain on CryptoQuant, the total capitalization of Ethereum tokens (ETTMC), often used as a benchmark for altcoin strength, has had to acknowledge the strength of this resistance barrier.
This is not the first time this resistance has occurred. On October 6th, sudden selling pressure forced ETTMC to correct to $1.34 trillion, exactly as it did in December 2024.
This situation has raised concerns about the formation of a double top pattern, which is usually a bearish technical signal. Although not yet fully confirmed, this pattern signals a large supply gap around the highs. In other words, the $1.6 trillion barrier is now a crucial point that must be overcome to open the door to a massive alt season.
Technical Pattern Sparks Altseason Speculation
On the other hand, there is interesting data that suggests the market hasn’t completely lost hope.
Technical analyst Crypto Panda JR revealed that the altcoin market cap ratio to Bitcoin (OTHERS/BTC) has now returned to its historical low, the same area that served as the starting point for altseasons in 2017 and 2021.
He pointed out a technical formation in the form of a descending wedge, a pattern that often signals a potential upward reversal.
Source: Crypto Panda JR on X
Furthermore, long-term charts show a recurring pattern: altseasons tend to start at strong support levels, then explode as Bitcoin approaches the peak of its bull run cycle.
When altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin, capital flows tend to shift, and this is what creates price explosions like those seen before. In the current context, Crypto Panda JR believes the accumulation phase is nearly over. If funds begin to flow back in, it’s possible Bitcoin’s dominance could be displaced.
However, all eyes remain on the $1.6 trillion level. This isn’t just a number, but a psychological and technical battleground for market participants.
A breakout above this level could nullify the bearish potential and become a key trigger for an altseason . But as long as that level remains unbroken, the market will remain wary.
Not only that, the technical structure formed so far is very similar to the two previous major altseasons. In fact, the OTHERS/BTC ratio chart shows the potential for a vertical upward curve, similar to what occurred during the altcoin frenzy a few years ago.
It might not be this week, and it might not be this month, but if that pattern repeats, 2025 could very well be the next altseason. For now, some traders are choosing to wait for convincing confirmation of a breakout.
