PENGU's $0.015 Level Ignites Recovery Optimism Despite Persistent Derivatives Short Pressure

The

(PENGU) token has dropped by more than 22% since the start of November, currently trading at $0.01589 as of November 7, 2025. This decline comes amid a broader slump in altcoins and increasing market dominance. Still, both technical analysis and blockchain data point to a possible short-term bounce. The TD Sequential oscillator, which helps identify when assets are overbought or oversold, has issued a buy signal near the $0.015 mark, giving traders hope for a rebound.

The latest downturn was fueled by a surge in leveraged short positions around the $0.0157 level, causing prices to fall by over 10% within a single day. Despite this negative

, the cumulative volume delta (CVD) improved to -$64 million from last week’s -$326 million, indicating that selling pressure may be easing. Moreover, the MACD indicator has turned slightly positive, hinting at a possible slowdown in the decline, according to an .

Experts from Ali Charts pointed to the TD Sequential buy signal as a potential trigger for a turnaround. This indicator is often used to spot when a downtrend may be running out of steam, and its appearance near $0.015 could mean a reversal is possible if

manages to reclaim the $0.0177–$0.0190 support range, as highlighted by Ambcrypto. Supporting this, on-chain data from Nansen AI showed that top profit-and-loss traders retained 97% of their PENGU tokens, accumulating $75,000 more, even as 24-hour trading volume soared 48 times to $241.7 million.

However, derivatives market data presents a mixed outlook. Short positions on trading platforms reached $7.68 million, with heavy leverage—between 25x and 50x—clustered at $0.01579. On Binance, shorts totaled $3.35 million, while longs stood at $1.77 million. This suggests that derivatives traders remain pessimistic, though spot market buyers could help stabilize prices if demand rises above $0.0177.

PENGU’s long-term prospects remain uncertain. CoinCodex’s forecasting model projects a further 25.08% drop to $0.01193 by December 7, 2025, according to

. The token’s 50-day and 200-day moving averages, at $0.02534 and $0.02133 respectively, are well above its current price, reinforcing the ongoing bearish trend, the model notes.

Elsewhere, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), a major player in the financial industry, is facing its own set of issues. The bank recently revealed plans to shut down 51 branches in the U.S., including six in Massachusetts, according to a

. Despite these closures, TD’s stock has outperformed the broader Finance sector, climbing 0.86% over the past month, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to upward earnings revisions, as noted in a . These changes reflect a wider trend of financial institutions adjusting to evolving market conditions, which could indirectly affect investor attitudes toward riskier assets like PENGU.

The introduction of the Evolve Big Six Canadian Banks UltraYield Index ETF (SIXY) further demonstrates growing institutional interest in the financial sector, according to a

. While SIXY is focused on Canadian banks, its performance could indicate a broader demand for income-generating investments, potentially drawing funds away from speculative tokens such as PENGU.

For PENGU to mount a significant recovery, bulls must first defend the $0.01772–$0.01900 range. A decisive move above this area could prompt short sellers to cover and attract fresh buyers, but ongoing pressure from derivatives and weak spot demand remain obstacles. Without a major catalyst, like a new exchange listing or regulatory news, PENGU’s short-term outlook is still bearish, with a 12-month target of $0.01193.